This paper is currently under review in the American Geophysical Union (AGU) journal “Earth’s Future” Impact Factor of “9”. View it here.
Kiwis can now see how sea-level rise will affect them - thanks to maps developed by experts part of NZ SeaRise.
Researcher and NZ SeaRise Programme Co-leader Tim Naish says the revelation came as "quite a big shock" for those who’re part of the NZ SeaRise programme.
The maps - developed for communities and planners - show how much and how fast the sea level will rise along their stretch of coast. The entire coastline has been mapped down to a 2km spacing. It allows people to see how their home could be affected, enabling them to assess risk from erosion and floods.
Local and international experts from Victoria University of Wellington, Otago University, GNS Science, NIWA and the Antarctic Science Platform are part of the five-year research programme NZ SeaRise.
Read more on 1NEWS here.
A report shows the sea level is rising twice as fast as previously thought in some parts of Aotearoa. Projections unveiled in a government-funded programme show infrastructure and homes in certain parts of the country risk inundation decades earlier than expected. The data comes from a group comprising dozens of local and international scientists called NZ SeaRise, which also includes GNS Science, Niwa and Te Rehanga Waka Victoria University of Wellington.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw spoke to Corin Dann on RNZ, Morning Report
New climate change research has pinpointed the places in New Zealand where sea-level rise will greatly outpace the global prediction of 30cm by 2060 which is based on achieving the Paris climate agreement. Read more here.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw says the release of new sea level rise data underlines the importance of the work the Government is doing to build a low emission, climate resilient future for Aotearoa.
“Data from the NZ SeaRise programme confirms why this Government is right to prioritise action to cut emissions and prepare communities for unavoidable climate impacts,” says James Shaw.
The NZ SeaRise: Te Tai Pari O Aotearoa programme has released data today showing the projected impact of sea level rise around the coast of Aotearoa New Zealand.
“Sea level rise has been a known consequence of climate change for many decades. What this data helpfully does is update the evidence we have for what sea level rise will mean for us in Aotearoa.
“While the findings are sobering, the data shows why we must continue to build on the progress this Government has made over the last four years to build a climate-friendly, prosperous future for Aotearoa – ending offshore fossil fuel exploration, upgrading schools, hospitals and businesses to run on clean energy, and making it easier for families to purchase low-emission vehicles.
“Later this month we will publish New Zealand’s first ever plan to cut emissions in every part of the country. Collectively, the actions that will make up the Emissions Reduction Plan will meet the climate targets this Government has set. Achieving these targets will improve our towns and cities and help to create climate friendly places for us all to live and work.
“While cutting emissions is the best possible step we can take to limit the severity with which we feel the impacts of climate change, we know we must also prepare for the effects we cannot avoid. Right now our Government is asking for feedback on New Zealand’s first ever National Adaptation Plan. This plan will be a step change in the way we plan and prepare for the impact of climate change.
“The new sea level rise data provides further evidence of the challenge we have ahead of us. But the underlying question it asks is whether we can address the challenge in a way that benefits everyone. The answer for this Government is clear: we are committed to taking climate action that will deliver new jobs and opportunities for Kiwi businesses, lower household energy bills, a more sustainable agriculture sector, less air pollution, warmer, drier homes, exciting new technologies, the protection of native species and eco-systems, cost savings for businesses, and overall resilience,” says James Shaw.
A media release from NZ SeaRise: Te Tai Pari O Aotearoa
On 2 May 2022 the NZ SeaRise: Te Tai Pari O Aotearoa programme will release location specific sea-level rise projections out to the year 2300 for every 2 km of the coast of Aotearoa New Zealand. These projections can be accessed through a new online tool at https://www.searise.nz/maps developed by Takiwā, a data management and analytics platform.
For the first time, New Zealanders will be able to see how much and how fast sea-level will rise along ‘their own’ stretch of coast and in their neighbourhood.
Climate change and warming temperatures are causing sea-levels to rise, on average, by 3.5 mm per year. This sea-level rise is caused by thermal expansion of the ocean, by melting land-based glaciers, and by melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
However, local sea-level rise around the coast of Aotearoa is also affected by up and down movements of our land. We are very aware when these vertical land movements occur in large jumps during earthquakes, but less obvious to us all is that smaller shifts occur continuously in between large seismic events.
These small but continuous changes add up, and in areas that are going down (subsiding) the annual rate of sea-level rise can double. We have connected this vertical land movement (VLM) data with climate driven sea-level rise to provide locally-relevant sea-level projections.
“Property owners, councils, infrastructure providers and others need to know how sea-level will change in the coming decades so that they can consider how risks associated with flooding, erosion and rising groundwater will shift,” said Dr Richard Levy, from GNS Science and Te Herenga Waka: Victoria University of Wellington, and co-leader of the NZ SeaRise programme.
“Twenty years ago we thought sea-level rise was like pouring water into a bathtub – if you put more water in, it rises uniformly around the world. But it’s much more complicated,” said Professor Tim Naish from Te Herenga Waka: Victoria University of Wellington, co-leader of the programme.
The NZ SeaRise projections tool will allow users to click on a particular location on the coast and see how much sea-level is expected to rise, and by when, under different climate change scenarios.
“We have estimated future sea-levels for 7,434 sites around our coastline. The largest increases in sea level will occur along the southeast North Island along the Wairarapa Coast. Here, land subsidence rates are high and sea-level could rise by well over one and a half metres by 2100 if we follow the least optimistic climate change scenario,” said Dr Levy.
“In contrast, land is rising near Pikowai in the Bay of Plenty and uplift rates may keep pace with climate change driven sea-level rise, causing a small fall in sea-level if we follow the most optimistic climate scenario.”
Based on current international emissions reduction policies, global sea levels are expected to rise about 0.6 m by 2100. “However for large parts of Aotearoa this will double to about 1.2 m due to ongoing land subsidence,” said Professor Naish. “We have less time to act than we thought.”
“We know that global sea-level rise of 25-30 cm by 2060 is baked in and unavoidable regardless of our future emissions pathway. But what may be a real surprise to people is that for many of our most populated regions, such as Auckland and Wellington, this unavoidable rise is happening faster than we thought. Vertical land movements mean that these changes in sea-level may happen 20 to 30 years sooner than previously expected,” said Dr Levy.
“For many parts of New Zealand’s coast 30 cm of sea-level rise is a threshold for extreme flooding, above which the 100-year coastal storm becomes an annual event.”
Sea-level rise projections for the entire coastline will help us make better decisions about how to adapt to rising seas. The new projections are being incorporated into the next Ministry for the Environment guidance for local government practitioners on coastal hazards and climate change.
“With the release last week of the Government’s draft National Plan on Climate Adaptation, the timing couldn’t be better, as the impacts and risks of sea-level rise are poorly defined for large parts of the coastline,” said Dr Levy
“We hope everyone takes a good look at the mapping tool at https://www.searise.nz/maps but we expect councils and planners will be the primary users. The finance and insurance sector have already been asking for the data – in part driven by the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures reporting requirements that need to be met by 2024,” said Dr Levy.
Sea-level rise can be kept to a minimum by enacting policies to meet Paris Agreement targets to limit global warming by 2100 to between 1.5 to 2°C.
“The severity with which we will experience sea-level rise, and other impacts of climate change can be lessened if we do all we can to limit warming by reducing emissions now. The sooner we act, the more effective that action will be,” said Professor Naish.
“To be forewarned is to be forearmed, and this new science gives us the time and opportunity to put in place equitable and effective adaptation measures that will limit the impact of unavoidable sea-level rise for the people of Aotearoa.”
NZ SeaRise is a five-year research programme funded by the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment Endeavour Fund. It brings together 30 local and international experts from Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington, GNS Science, NIWA, University of Otago and the Antarctic Science Platform to improve projections of sea-level rise in Aotearoa New Zealand. The sea-level projection and mapping tool was developed by Takiwā, a Māori-owned data management and analytics platform. An update to the Coastal Hazards Guidance for Local Government on how to use the new projections for planning has been co-produced with the Ministry for the Environment.
A study including research by Judy Lawrence reminds us the time to be making long-term plans for coastal property is now:
We have to be careful we don't do temporary works that actually raise expectations of further protection in the future, because this will create very, very expensive properties by the sea which really won't be sustainable over the long term. So, it is a conundrum.
Read more here.
A research team from Victoria University of Wellington, funded by the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge, has designed a decision-making framework for councils to protect water systems against sea level rise.
Read More
How successful are sea-level rise maps in conveying information to the public? NZ SeaRise is lucky to be hosting a group of students from Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts, USA who are working on a answering that question. In a normal year (i.e. non-COVID-19) they would travel to NZ to conduct their studies but this year they are having to do it remotely.
The students have put together a survey regarding public perception of sea-level rise in New Zealand and are particularly interested in how people use (or not) sea level slider maps. The survey takes about 15 minutes to complete and asks participants to test out one of two online maps (Waikato and Wellington)
Do the survey here.
NZ SeaRise were invited to contribute this article to a Special Publication on Sea Level Rise that has been produced by the NZ Coastal Society.
Read MoreEloise Gibson investigates the back and forth between locals, councils, sand and sea in Orewa.
Read MoreMany owners of baches, cribs and beach houses around New Zealand’s coast will find their homes uninsurable within 20 years.
Read MoreA group of more than 20 geologists, glaciologists, climate and social scientists make up the winning team, ‘Melting Ice and Rising Seas’, that has won the 2019 Prime Minister’s Science Prize.
Read MoreIn Fifteen Million Years in Antarctica Rebecca Priestley, a contributer to the NZ SeaRise programme, offers a deeply personal tour of Antarctica.
Read MoreThere are many lessons climate scientists can learn from mātauranga Māori. Lesson one is: don’t panic.
Read MoreProfessor Tim Naish is one of only eight scientists around the world invited to speak at the first Antarctic Parliamentarians Assembly in London.
Read MoreAs the sea-level rises, it will take less bad luck to cause the same amount of flooding
Read MoreLocal variations in land movement can double the short-term impacts of sea-level rise, or slow the effects to nothing.
Read MoreContact us: nzsearise@vuw.ac.nz
