Projections

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New Zealanders should follow the New Zealand Coastal Hazard Guidance (Ministry for the Environment, 2017). Projections in the guidance are based on previous global assessments (Kopp et al., 2014) and indicate that sea level could rise by as much as 1.2 meters by 2100 under high emissions scenarios. However, these projections do not include local influences such as vertical land movement due to tectonics, land compaction, or sediment accumulation. The NZ SeaRise Programme is updating our national projections to incorporate state-of-the-art information regarding future response of Earth’s large ice sheets and local non-climatic influences. These local projections will be used to help make local decisions to inform adaptation.




 

Recent publications

Sea-level rise in the news